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**Question 1**

**What is another term for forecast?**

- predict
- anticipate
- foreshadow
- guess

**Question 2**

**A health services manager would be mistaken to use which forecasting technique when making long-term predictions?**

- extrapolations
- moving averages

- judgments

- exponential smoothing

**Question 3**

**Most forecasting problems faced by the health services manager can be accomplished using some form of forecasting known as what?**

- judgment forecasting

- analytic forecasting

- expert forecasting
- genius forecasting

**Question 4**

**Which assumption would guide decision making when attempting to forecast the impact of a new government regulation?**

- the past predicts the future

- cause and effect

- general naiveté
- general indifference

**Question 5**

**What is another name for the analytic branch of forecasting?**

- judgmental forecasting
- genius forecasting
- expert forecasting

- statistical forecasting

**Question 6**

**Using moving averages for n = 2 and n = 3 will produce what types of forecasts?**

- equally accurate forecasts

- widely varying forecasts
- forecasts with small variances
- forecasts with statistical differences

**Question 7**

**Which moving average best minimizes the variation in historical data and is the recommended moving average to use for forecasting?**

- 1
- 2
- 3

- 4

**Question 8**

**What is true of exponential smoothing?**

- It groups data together in different combinations.

- It bases a forecast on different weighted monthly calculations.

- It places more weight on observations based in the past.
- It magnifies forecasting variations.

**Question 9**

**If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using exponential smoothing, SC=.3?**

- 10

- 11

- 12
- 13

**Question 10**

**Using a smoothing constant of 0.3, 0.35, or 0.4 will produce what types of forecasts?**

- equally accurate forecasts

- widely varying forecasts
- forecasts with small variances
- forecasts with statistical differences

**Question 11**

**What is the purpose for using confidence intervals in regression forecasting?**

- to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the future

- to place ranges around linear point estimates going into the past
- to place ranges around linear point estimates that reside in a cluster
- to place ranges around linear point estimates that have minimal statistical congruence

**Question 12**

**What does a slope of zero mean?**

- As Y changes, X also varies.
- As X changes, Y also varies.
- As Y changes, X remains constant.

- As X changes, Y remains constant.

**Question 13**

**If forecasting using 33 months of historical data, how many months should you forecast if using a regression forecast?**

- 10

- 11

- 12
- 13

**Question 14**

**Which of the following is the null hypothesis used to test whether a regression line may or may not be used?**

- Ho: The intercept is > .05
- Ho: The slope coefficient is > t

- Ho: The slope is non-zero

- Ho: The standard error is non-zero

**Question 15**

**What is another name for regression analysis?**

- ordinary least squares regression

- extrapolated squares
- exponential regression
- atypical squares regression

**Question 16**

**What is true of system capacity?**

- It is unlimited across the globe.
- It is unlimited in certain developed nations.
- It is finite during certain times of the year.

- It is finite regardless of location or time.

**Question 17**

**How can the capacity of any specific work process be determined?**

- by using a linear regression formula

- by using direct observation

- by conducting quantitative research
- by implementing a truncated flow chart

**Question 18**

**Capacity analysis provides a quantitative methodology for establishing what?**

- production opportunities

- production constraints

- production successes
- production expenses

**Question 19**

**An airplane with 100 seats can fly no more than 100 passengers at any one time. The limit of a system’s finite capacity is called what?**

- production limitation
- production horizon
- production planning

- production frontier

**Question 20**

**Service systems used to provide medical care are complex and involve multiple steps. The capacity of any service system is determined by the capacity of each individual step in the production process. The step that has the lowest capacity determines what?**

- the entire system’s success rate
- the potential failure of the entire system

- the capacity of the entire system

- the efficiency of the entire system

**Question 21**

**In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 6 per hour and the arrival rate is 4 per hour, what is the average time a unit spends waiting in the system (Wq)?**

- undeterminable

- approximately 20 minutes

- approximately 30 minutes
- approximately 1.5 hours

**Question 22**

**What is it called when a unit switches lines in order to get on a shorter line?**

- vying
- prying

- jockeying

- accelerating

**Question 23**

**When queuing theory models are used in the development of appointment system, giving appointments every 15 minutes is the same as an arrival rate of how many per hour?**

- 4

- 5
- 10
- 12

**Question 24**

**Queuing theory calculations describe arrivals for the line according to which probability distribution?**

- Poisson

- Exponential
- Parabolic
- Hyperbolic

**Question 25**

**In a single channel single server system, if the service rate is 4 per hour and the arrival rate is 6 per hours, what is the average time a unit spends waiting in the system (Wq)?**

- infinite

- approximately 20 minutes
- approximately 40 minutes
- approximately 1 hour